Ad

IMF says China property slowdown will weigh on Asia's growth

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A person rides a scooter past a construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden, in Tianjin, China August 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo

By Xinghui Kok


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its 2023 and 2024 growth forecasts for China, saying its recovery was "losing steam" and citing weakness in its property sector.


The world's second-largest economy is expected to expand by 5% this year and 4.2% next year, down from 5.2% and 4.5% in the IMF's April forecast, the institution said in a regional economic outlook report released on Wednesday.


"In China, the recovery is losing steam, with manufacturing purchasing managers' indexes entering contracting territory from April to August and conditions in the real estate sector weakening further," said the report.


The report projected that a prolonged housing market correction in China would in the near-term "trigger greater financial stress among property developers and larger asset quality deterioration".


The impact of that could cause China's gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by as much as 1.6% percent relative to the baseline by 2025, while world GDP would decline by 0.6% relative to the baseline, it added.


The IMF's 2023 outlook for Asia and the Pacific was brighter, with IMF calling it "the most dynamic region this year".


The agency maintained its earlier growth projection for the region at 4.6% in 2023 and said economic activity in the region was on track to contribute around two-thirds of global growth this year.


Growth in Asia and the Pacific, however, is expected to slow to 4.2% next year. The IMF expects it to further moderate to 3.9% in the medium-term -- the lowest in the past two decades except for 2020 -- as China’s structural slowdown and weaker productivity growth in many other economies weigh on the region.


Disinflation was a bright spot for Asia, with the region excluding Japan expected to return to respective central bank inflation targets by the end of next year.


"This puts Asia ahead of the rest of the world, which, in general, will not see inflation returning to target until at least 2025," it said.



Central banks in the region, however, should guard against easing monetary policy prematurely, the IMF added.


"Central banks should carry through with policies to ensure that inflation is durably at appropriate targets. As tight monetary conditions can place strains on financial stability, strengthening financial supervision, vigilant monitoring of systemic risks, and modernising resolution frameworks are critical."


IMF says China property slowdown will weigh on Asia's growth  

Related Article

Potentially Confusing Credit Cards Rewards Programs

Potentially Confusing Credit Cards Rewards Programs

These cards aren't the easiest to use or the most basic, but they might benefit maximizers who don't mind putting in a little more effort in return for larger rewards.
Venezuela, opposition sign election deal; US weighs sanctions relief

Venezuela, opposition sign election deal; US weighs sanctions relief

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro speaks during a meeting with Iranian Pre
Asia frets on Middle East risks, looming China data

Asia frets on Middle East risks, looming China data

© Reuters. A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying various countries' stock price index
Wall St ends mixed, US Treasury yields spike on robust data, solid earnings

Wall St ends mixed, US Treasury yields spike on robust data, solid earnings

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man looks at an electric board displaying the Nikkei stock average outside
Tyson Foods workers, activists protest child labor in US meat sector

Tyson Foods workers, activists protest child labor in US meat sector

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Tyson Foods is seen in Davos, Switzerland, May 22, 2022. REUTERS/
Dollar holds on to gains after firm US inflation; focus turns to China data

Dollar holds on to gains after firm US inflation; focus turns to China data

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The employee of a currency exchange shop counts U.S. dollar banknotes in Ciud
Warm weather delays early Christmas food sales

Warm weather delays early Christmas food sales

Image source, Getty ImagesWarm weather last month delayed early sales of Christmas food such as pudd
Oil prices rise following Hamas attack on Israel

Oil prices rise following Hamas attack on Israel

Image source, Getty ImagesBy Annabelle LiangBusiness reporterOil prices have jumped on concerns that
Nobel economics prize awarded to Claudia Goldin for work on women's pay

Nobel economics prize awarded to Claudia Goldin for work on women's pay

Related TopicsNobel PrizeImage source, Harvard UniversityBy Lucy HookerBusiness reporter, BBC NewsTh